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Comparison of Models for Probabilities in Football Betting
Kožnar, František ; Večeř, Jan (advisor) ; Hlávka, Zdeněk (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to compare different statistical models for football betting odds and determine the best performing once based on the historical performance of sport teams. There are at least two possible approaches for computing the odds, namely Poisson regression and methods based on statistical machine learning. The idea is that the historical performance of teams is a good predictor of the future performance. Thus we can take the past performances, say all matches in the full season of the Bundesliga (306 matches), and use these data for predicting the odds for the following season. The resulting odds should be compared with the actual results using the scoring rules, which will identify the best performing model. 1
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Comparison of Models for Probabilities in Football Betting
Kožnar, František ; Večeř, Jan (advisor) ; Hlávka, Zdeněk (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to compare different statistical models for football betting odds and determine the best performing once based on the historical performance of sport teams. There are at least three possible approaches for computing the odds, namely logistic regression, Poisson regression and methods based on statistical machine learning. The idea is that the historical performance of teams is a good predictor of the future performance. Thus we can take the past performances, say all matches in the full season of the English Premier League (380 matches), and use these data for predicting the odds for the following season. The resulting odds should be compared with the actual results using the scoring rules, which will identify the best performing model.
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Prediction of Betting Odds Based on Logistic Regression
JANDA, Pavel
Betting odds in various areas of human life is becoming very popular. This Bachelor's Thesis deals with the prediction of betting odds based on logistic regression. This work describes general information about betting odds, the history of betting odds both here in the Czech Republic and abroad, the forms of betting odds, who is a bookmaker and how betting odds are created. There are 3 sets of data. Specifically, it is the advantage of the home ground, the pre-match table and previous matches. Data is processed by lo-gistic regression to predict betting odds. The three above conditions are included in the Statistica program, which calculates the probability of each variant based on logistic regression. The results from the Statistica program are then compared to the actually listed betting odds.
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